PMF Survey (Sean Ellis 40% Rule)

PMF Survey (Sean Ellis 40% Rule)

PMF Survey (Sean Ellis 40% Rule)

Use it when you need a quick, data-driven check if your product truly resonates with users.

Category

Growth & Metrics

Growth & Metrics

Originator

Sean Ellis

Sean Ellis

Time to implement

1 day

1 day

Difficulty

Beginner

Beginner

Popular in

Founders

Founders

Growth

Growth

What is it?

The PMF Survey with Sean Ellis's 40% Rule is a razor-sharp, single-question benchmark that tells you if you've hit product-market fit.

You fire off a survey to your most active users asking, “How would you feel if you could no longer use [Your Product]?” and classify responses into ‘very disappointed,' ‘somewhat disappointed,' or ‘not disappointed.' Then you calculate the percentage of ‘very disappointed' answers: if it's 40% or higher, you've likely nailed PMF. This simple user feedback loop solves the core startup problem of knowing, beyond gut feel, whether your product solves a real market pain.

It breaks PMF down into a clear metric, so you can track improvements over time, validate pivots, and align your roadmap around features that drive true retention.

Why it matters?

PMF Survey gives you a hard number instead of wishful thinking, so you can prove that your product not only attracts users but becomes indispensable. Hitting higher ‘very disappointed' percentages correlates directly with better retention, higher referrals, and faster sustainable growth.

How it works

Growth co-pilot turns your toughest product questions into clear, data-backed recommendations you can act on immediately.

1

Define your sample

Pick at least 40 active users who've engaged with your core feature in the last 30 days to ensure statistical relevance.

2

Send the survey

Ask the key question, “How would you feel if you could no longer use [Product]?”, plus optional follow-ups on usage frequency and referral intent.

3

Categorize responses

Tally ‘very disappointed,' ‘somewhat disappointed,' and ‘not disappointed' answers in your survey tool or spreadsheet.

4

Calculate your PMF score

Divide the ‘very disappointed' count by total responses, multiply by 100, and compare against the 40% rule.

5

Interpret and iterate

Over 40% signals strong PMF; 30–40% is cautionary; under 30% means you need to refine your core value. Plan experiments based on where you fell short.

6

Segment deeper

Break your PMF score out by user persona, acquisition channel, or feature usage to uncover pockets of true product enthusiasm.

Frequently asked questions

Growth co-pilot turns your toughest product questions into clear, data-backed recommendations you can act on immediately.

Why focus on the ‘very disappointed' group when measuring PMF?

The ‘very disappointed' segment represents users who rely on your product every day. They're the beating heart of retention and referrals, ignoring them means missing the signal that you've truly solved a pressing problem.

Why focus on the ‘very disappointed' group when measuring PMF?

The ‘very disappointed' segment represents users who rely on your product every day. They're the beating heart of retention and referrals, ignoring them means missing the signal that you've truly solved a pressing problem.

How many survey responses do I need for a reliable PMF score?

Aim for at least 40 completed surveys from engaged users. Fewer responses can skew your percentage and lead to false positives or negatives.

How many survey responses do I need for a reliable PMF score?

Aim for at least 40 completed surveys from engaged users. Fewer responses can skew your percentage and lead to false positives or negatives.

Can I run the PMF survey more than once?

Absolutely. Treat it as a sprint metric, repeat quarterly or after major feature launches to track whether changes push your ‘very disappointed' number up or down.

Can I run the PMF survey more than once?

Absolutely. Treat it as a sprint metric, repeat quarterly or after major feature launches to track whether changes push your ‘very disappointed' number up or down.

What do responses beyond ‘very disappointed' tell me?

‘Somewhat disappointed' users like your product but aren't glued to it yet. Their feedback can highlight features you need to double down on or UX polish to deepen engagement.

What do responses beyond ‘very disappointed' tell me?

‘Somewhat disappointed' users like your product but aren't glued to it yet. Their feedback can highlight features you need to double down on or UX polish to deepen engagement.

My score is between 30% and 40%. What now?

You're in the danger zone: some users love you, but not enough to call you indispensable. Use that cohort's survey comments to pinpoint missing hooks, then run targeted experiments to tip you over 40%.

My score is between 30% and 40%. What now?

You're in the danger zone: some users love you, but not enough to call you indispensable. Use that cohort's survey comments to pinpoint missing hooks, then run targeted experiments to tip you over 40%.

You've nailed your PMF score, now don't stop there. Run the CrackGrowth diagnostic to uncover the funnel leaks holding back your next growth spurt and prioritize the experiments that push your score skyward.