Cost of Delay Divided by Duration (CD3)

Use it when you need to sequence features or initiatives by pure economic impact, not gut feel.

What is it?

Cost of Delay Divided by Duration (CD3) is a lean-agile prioritization framework pioneered by Don Reinertsen.

It turns vague value debates into hard-dollar math by combining the economic impact of delaying work (Cost of Delay) with the time required to complete it (Duration). You calculate Cost of Delay by estimating lost revenue, user churn risks, or competitive disadvantage per unit time. Then you divide that by your effort estimate in days or weeks. The result is a CD3 score, an objective, comparable value density metric that ranks initiatives by economic urgency. CD3 solves the problem of backlog bias toward big, slow projects and subjective VIP requests. Its core components are: 1) quantifying delay cost, 2) estimating duration, and 3) computing the ratio to guide sequencing.

By prioritizing highest CD3 first, you unlock faster ROI, minimize wasted time, and create a truly flow-based roadmap.

Why it matters?

CD3 aligns your roadmap with pure economic impact, so you deliver the highest-value work first. That drives faster revenue, cuts wasted cycles on low-ROI projects, and accelerates validated learning. Instead of debating opinions, you build a growth engine fueled by dollars-per-week math.

How it works

Growth co-pilot turns your toughest product questions into clear, data-backed recommendations you can act on immediately.

Identify initiatives

List every project, feature, or epic you're debating. Be ruthless, if it doesn't directly move the needle, drop it.

Quantify Cost of Delay (CoD)

For each item, estimate lost revenue, customer churn risk, or market impact per week. Use data or stakeholder consensus to assign a dollar value to a one-week delay.

Estimate Duration

Predict how long the work will take, days or weeks. Leverage historical velocity or t-shirt sizing, but keep it realistic.

Calculate CD3 Score

Divide each CoD value by its duration estimate. That gives you a standardized value density number, dollars per week of effort.

Rank by CD3

Sort your backlog highest to lowest CDItems with the biggest economic payoff per time unit rise to the top.

Sequence and execute

Build in CD3 order to maximize throughput. Recalculate whenever estimates or business drivers change.

Frequently asked questions

Growth co-pilot turns your toughest product questions into clear, data-backed recommendations you can act on immediately.

What data do I need to calculate Cost of Delay?

At minimum, estimate revenue impact, customer churn risk, or market share loss per week of delay. Use historical data, stakeholder input, or simple proxies if you lack precise figures.

What data do I need to calculate Cost of Delay?

At minimum, estimate revenue impact, customer churn risk, or market share loss per week of delay. Use historical data, stakeholder input, or simple proxies if you lack precise figures.

How accurate do duration estimates need to be?

You don't need down-to-the-hour precision, broad T-shirt sizes or sprint-based estimates work. CD3 tolerates some fuzziness as long as you're directionally correct.

How accurate do duration estimates need to be?

You don't need down-to-the-hour precision, broad T-shirt sizes or sprint-based estimates work. CD3 tolerates some fuzziness as long as you're directionally correct.

How is CD3 different from RICE or ICE?

RICE adds Reach and Confidence; ICE covers Impact, Confidence, Ease. CD3 zeroes in on economic value per time unit, making it superior when you need pure ROI sequencing.

How is CD3 different from RICE or ICE?

RICE adds Reach and Confidence; ICE covers Impact, Confidence, Ease. CD3 zeroes in on economic value per time unit, making it superior when you need pure ROI sequencing.

What if my Cost of Delay is hard to quantify?

Use relative scoring or buckets (high/medium/low) and assign dollar proxies. The goal is consistent ranking, not perfect accounting.

What if my Cost of Delay is hard to quantify?

Use relative scoring or buckets (high/medium/low) and assign dollar proxies. The goal is consistent ranking, not perfect accounting.

Can I use CD3 in Agile sprints?

Absolutely. Treat each sprint as your delivery cadence, calculate CoD in sprint units, and sequence your backlog sprint by sprint for continuous flow.

Can I use CD3 in Agile sprints?

Absolutely. Treat each sprint as your delivery cadence, calculate CoD in sprint units, and sequence your backlog sprint by sprint for continuous flow.

You've ranked by CD3 and unlocked your highest ROI opportunity, now don't ship blind; feed that top-ranked feature into the CrackGrowth diagnostic to uncover hidden UX hurdles before you write a line of code.

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